Let's Talk Iowa

So the Iowa caucuses were last night.


And Barack Obama kicked some ass. And I am filled with joy. Seriously.

I have some misgivings about Obama as a candidate, and have previously voiced my leanings toward Senator Clinton, who I believe is the smartest, most accomplished candidate in the field today. But none of that really matters right now. What matters is that a black man won the Iowa caucuses and, for the first time in history, a person of color is a serious Presidential candidate. He won handily in a state that is 95% white. This is history, people, and we're living it. And it's cool.

Oh, and some other guy won his primary, too. I should be scared that an evangelical, anti-choice, anti-gay candidate who wants to "take the country back for Christ" won this first and important victory, but I'm too happy about the Obama thing to really care.

Because first of all, Iowa has way more evangelical voters than most states, where Huckabee will have a much harder time. Secondly, a Huckabee win was less of a victory for Huckabee than a defeat for Mitt Romney, who is at least as scary if not moreso. When John McCain "conceded" his "defeat" to Gov. Huckabee last night, he was practically jumping for joy, knowing that his New Hampshire prospects now look a lot brighter than they once did with Huckabee in the lead. Not that the thought of a McCain presidency isn't scary, but I'd take him over Romney or Huckabee.

But let's get back to the good news. If Iowa is any indication, the Democrats are totally going to take the White House in 2008. Huckabee can claim a victory of sorts, but all three Democratic frontrunners scored more caucus-goers last night than Huckabee did. All combined, the Democrats got over 220,000 people to leave their homes on a Thursday evening to participate in the fascinating but slightly arcane process that is the Democratic caucus. This is up from 124,000 from those who showed up in '04. More importantly, this is compared to the Republicans, who could only get 114,000 people to show up to cast a vote in a much simpler and easy-to-understand process. That's almost double.

Now, for the bad news, as it pertains to "my girl" Hillary Clinton. Pundits are saying that her third-place finish last night was a big blow. They say that if history repeats itself, Obama's win in Iowa will mean an automatic jump in the polls for Barack in New Hampshire, making it more difficult for Hillary there, and it's a win they say she really needs.

To the pundits, I say: pft.

I'll start by saying that it would be foolish to underestimate Hillary Clinton or the political machine that surrounds her. Secondly, it was interesting that her post-caucus concession speech last night was basically a celebration of Democrats, spoken as though she were the party's natural leader. She's shrewd, and savvy. And while that scares a lot of people, I'm personally ready for shrewd and savvy after seven years of slow and stupid. While the pundits sharpen their claws, I'll be less hasty with any rash predictions. First of all, Iowa usually but doesn't always predict the eventual nominees (Bill Clinton only won 3% of Iowa delegates in '92); secondly, I'm an amateur pundit at best, and more accurately an interested observer; finally, I think that Hillary's air of inevitability was more curse than blessing, and the idea that she'll have to fight for the nomination might just be the real kick in the pants that her campaign needed.

And speaking of kicks in pants, I will admit to feeling some sympathy pangs for poor Chris Dodd, who was trampled last night and dropped out of the race completely, after moving his family to Iowa and even sending his daughters to school there. Joe Biden also dropped out, but is a shoo-in for Secretary of State if any Democrat is elected this year, and I think that the chances are good for him. It's not President, but it's no small task, and he's perfect for it.

And so, despite my good wishes for the Clinton campaign, I remain giddy and delighted on this, the day after Iowa. The other day, I signed a petition that stated that I would vote for the Democratic nominee this year, whomsoever he or she may be (and yes, I linked to it so that you could do the same). And if Obama is our candidate, he'll get my enthusiastic support. If John Edwards is my candidate, I'll stand on my head to get him elected. If Bill Richardson is able to work some kind of freakin' miracle and get the nomination, I'm scream until I'm hoarse at every rally I can attend.

Let me know your thoughts (and then go back and sign that petition -- seriously) ...